10 New Insights in Climate Science 2024/2025

Source: Future Earth, The Earth League, and the World Climate Research Programme

Each year, the scientific community compiles the most significant recent advancements in climate science to support informed policy and societal action. The 2024/2025 edition of 10 New Insights in Climate Science—based on peer-reviewed research published between January 2023 and June 2024—synthesizes urgent findings for decision-makers, negotiators, and the broader public. Produced by Future Earth, The Earth League, and the World Climate Research Programme, this report brings together interdisciplinary knowledge to highlight both accelerating risks and emerging opportunities.

The following summary presents these insights in detail, unpacking their scientific basis, implications, and recommendations for future action.

Understanding the State of the Climate

The years 2023 and 2024 have marked the hottest period ever recorded, with August 2024 registering temperatures 1.51°C above pre-industrial levels. Simultaneously, global sea surface temperatures reached historic highs, and extreme weather events—from Canada’s unprecedented wildfires to South Asia’s deadly heatwaves—have become increasingly likely and intense. These developments emphasize the need for a new level of urgency and ambition across climate mitigation, adaptation, and resilience planning.

Key Scientific Insights

1. Methane Levels Are Surging: A Critical Opportunity for Fast Mitigation

Methane, a powerful but short-lived greenhouse gas, has been rising rapidly, with emissions from fossil fuel extraction, agriculture, and waste identified as the primary drivers. Since 2006, global methane levels have accelerated sharply, surpassing historical records.

Scientific Highlights:

• Methane is over 80 times more potent than CO₂ over a 20-year period.
  

• It has contributed ~0.5°C to global warming since the 19th century.
  

• Natural methane emissions, such as from wetlands, are also increasing due to feedback from warming.
  

Challenges and Opportunities:

• Only 13% of methane emissions are currently regulated under binding policy mechanisms.
  

• Satellite monitoring now enables the identification of major methane “super-emitters.”
  

• Deep cuts in methane emissions—particularly from oil and gas operations and waste facilities—are both technically feasible and cost-effective.
  

• The agricultural sector remains harder to reform but offers mitigation potential via feed management, waste reduction, and dietary changes.
  

Governments should incorporate explicit methane targets into their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), supported by enforcement mechanisms, monitoring frameworks, and international collaboration.

2. Declining Air Pollution Unmasks Underlying Warming

Global efforts to reduce aerosol emissions (air pollutants such as soot and sulfates) have significantly improved public health but also removed their temporary cooling effect on the atmosphere.

Scientific Highlights:

• Aerosols reflect sunlight and cool the Earth’s surface, partially masking the warming effects of greenhouse gases.
  

• Reductions in aerosols are now exposing the full warming potential of CO₂ and methane.
  

• Regional aerosol changes are altering rainfall patterns and increasing the frequency of extreme weather events.
  

Implications:

• The unintended warming effect from aerosol reduction could accelerate climate change temporarily.
  

• South and East Asia show diverging aerosol trends, influencing localized climate risks.
  

Aerosols must be accounted for in both mitigation and adaptation plans. A global task force on aerosols—similar to methane initiatives—could help incorporate these dynamics into national strategies and inform the next IPCC guidance.

3. Heat Is Rendering Regions Increasingly Uninhabitable

Human health, productivity, and survival are tied to a narrow range of climatic conditions. With rising temperatures and humidity, more regions are moving outside the so-called “human climate niche.”

Scientific Highlights:

• Over 600 million people now live in areas with conditions deemed uninhabitable for extended periods.
  

• Each degree of warming could push an additional 10% of the global population outside habitable ranges.
  

• Heat stress is especially deadly when combined with high humidity and poor infrastructure.
  

Societal Impact:

• Populations in the Global South are disproportionately affected due to limited access to cooling infrastructure, healthcare, and water resources.
  

• Vulnerable groups—such as outdoor laborers, pregnant women, children, and the elderly—face the highest risks.
  

Heat Action Plans and Early Warning Systems must be scaled urgently. Adaptation planning should prioritize urban design, labor protections, and infrastructure improvements that can mitigate the worst impacts of heat.

4. Climate Change Threatens Maternal and Reproductive Health

Climate-related stressors are exacerbating health risks for women and children, particularly in low-income and climate-vulnerable regions.

Scientific Highlights:

• Heat exposure is linked to higher rates of miscarriage, preterm birth, and maternal mortality.
  

• Floods and displacement can disrupt healthcare access and increase exposure to disease and violence.
  

• Climate-related food and water insecurity further compounds reproductive health challenges.
  

Structural Gaps:

• Fewer than 25% of NDCs reference maternal or newborn health.
  

• Gendered dimensions of climate risk remain underrepresented in adaptation frameworks.
  

Maternal and reproductive health must be integrated into climate adaptation and healthcare systems. Gender-equitable planning and investment in climate-resilient health infrastructure are essential.

5. Ocean Warming Raises Alarms Over El Niño and AMOC Instability

Oceans are warming at record-breaking levels, affecting global circulation systems and atmospheric dynamics. Two key concerns are emerging:

A. El Niño Intensification

• Economic losses from El Niño are now estimated in the trillions.
  

• Frequency and severity are expected to increase with warming.
  

B. AMOC Collapse Risk

• The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is weakening, with potential for abrupt collapse in the coming decades.
  

• This could disrupt weather patterns, sea levels, and ecosystems across the globe.
  

Robust ocean monitoring systems and risk assessments are urgently needed. Climate models must be refined to incorporate feedback and thresholds, with increased investment in ocean–atmosphere observation networks.

6. Biocultural Diversity is Key to Amazon Forest Resilience

The Amazon is facing dual threats from climate change and human activities like deforestation and illegal mining.

Scientific Highlights:

• Parts of the forest have shifted from carbon sinks to carbon sources.
  

• The forest is approaching ecological tipping points linked to rainfall and temperature thresholds.
  

Solutions:

• Indigenous and local stewardship enhances resilience through traditional knowledge.
  

• Preserving biodiversity—both ecological and cultural—is critical to maintaining ecosystem stability.
  

Support regional cooperation, law enforcement, and the development of sustainable economic models that prioritize conservation. Brazil’s proposed Tropical Forest Forever Fund should be operationalized by COP30.

7. Infrastructure Systems Are Vulnerable to Cascading Climate Risks

Critical infrastructure—such as energy grids, water systems, healthcare, and transportation—faces growing risks from extreme climate events.

Scientific Highlights:

• Interconnected infrastructure increases the risk of cascading failures.
  

• Informal settlements, where infrastructure is weakest, are home to over 1 billion people.
  

Emerging Tools:

• AI and machine learning can enhance resilience through predictive analytics, smart grids, and real-time risk monitoring.
  

Resilience reviews must become standard practice, particularly in urbanizing regions. Investments should prioritize decentralized systems, nature-based solutions, and integration with climate adaptation strategies.

8. New Frameworks Can Drive Climate-Resilient Urban Development

Cities are central to climate solutions but often fail to integrate mitigation and adaptation holistically.

Scientific Highlights:

• The SETS (Social-Ecological-Technological Systems) framework offers a blueprint for aligning environmental, social, and technological priorities.
  

• Integrated urban planning can unlock co-benefits such as reduce